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如何在机器人时代不纠结

时期:2021-04-25 01:51 点击数:
本文摘要:An IBM executive told a recent conference that when supercomputer Deep Blue was halfway through its 1997 chess match with Garry Kasparov, it made a random move, due to a software bug. Assuming the machine was smarter than it was, Kasparov

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An IBM executive told a recent conference that when supercomputer Deep Blue was halfway through its 1997 chess match with Garry Kasparov, it made a random move, due to a software bug. Assuming the machine was smarter than it was, Kasparov later made a strategic error that helped hand Deep Blue victory in the match.IBM的一位高管在最近的一次会议上回应,1997年超级计算机“深蓝”(Deep Blue)与加里卡斯帕罗夫(Garry Kasparov)展开国际象棋比赛,在对局到一半时,“深蓝”由于软件故障回头了一步闲棋。卡斯帕罗夫指出“深蓝”后来逆聪慧了,他本人罪了一个战略性错误,从而协助深蓝取得了比赛的胜利。Thomas Davenport and Julia Kirby warn that humans could, like Kasparov, cede the future to machines too easily.托马斯达文波特(Thomas Davenport)和茱莉亚柯比(Julia Kirby)警告称之为,与卡斯帕罗夫一样,人类有可能只能将未来让给让出机器。

“Many knowledge workers are fearful,” they write. “We should be concerned, given the potential for these unprecedented tools to make us redundant. But we should not feel helpless in the midst of the large-scale change unfolding around us.”他们写到:“许多知识型员工十分担忧。鉴于这些史无前例的工具有可能造成我们丧失工作,我们应当担忧。但面临我们身边正在经常出现的大规模变化,我们也不必深感茫然绝望。”Only Humans Need Apply falls into the sub-genre of techno-optimism, at the opposite end of the bookshelf from, say, Martin Ford’s doomier Rise of the Robots .《只有人类必须打工》(Only Humans Need Apply)可以归属于“技术悲观为首”的类别,书架的另一端则有马丁福特(Martin Ford)更为乐观的著作——《机器人时代》(Rise of the Robots)。

Not all of every job can be automated, the authors point out. Change may be a long time coming (they cite futurist Paul Saffo’s wise insight: “Never mistake a clear view for a short distance”). Critically, humans have the power to shape their destiny. They can develop, program and direct machines, and adapt to working with them, in a process of “augmentation” rather than mere automation. Machines, up to now “the brawn to our brains, can become the brains to our brio”.《只有人类必须打工》的两位作者认为,并非每一种工作都可以自动化。变化有可能在一个漫长的时期内再次发生——他们援引未来学家保罗萨福(Paul Saffo)的至理名言:Never mistake a clear view for a short distance(望山跑完杀马)。

关键是,人类有能力塑造成自己的命运。在“扩充”(augmentation)而非非常简单自动化的过程中,人们可以研发机器、给机器编程以及向机器下指令,调整自身以适应环境与机器合作。机器至今“对我们的大脑来说就有如肌肉,它们可以沦为大脑,使我们取得精神上的感觉”。Having deftly outlined the gloomier forecasts, Kirby and Davenport lay out how to avoid submission to, or substitution by, machines. A few senior managers will step up into overseeing automated systems. Other workers will step aside, by developing careers in areas machines are not as good at, such as motivation, creativity or empathy.柯比和达文波特列出了一些更为乐观的预测,阐释如何防止被机器反抗或者代替。

少数高级经理将“向下迈步”,专门从事监控自动化系统的岗位。其他劳动者将不会“向旁边迈步”,在鼓舞、建构或移情等机器不擅长于的领域发展职业。

Still others will step in (by learning more about how computers work and how to improve them), step narrowly (becoming super-specialists), or step forward to develop new systems and technology.还有些人将不会“迈向”这一行(通过更进一步自学计算机工作原理并研究如何改良它们)、专攻某个狭小领域(沦为超级专家),或者“向前迈步”研发新的系统和技术。Plenty of people have already made these changes, and they describe many of them. Here is the redundant lawyer who “stepped in” to become an expert overseer of automated contract reviews; or the editor who “stepped up” to develop a computerised system for preparing and publishing sports statistics and earnings reports. If you pair adaptable humans with computers, you can remove tedious tasks and manage the change humanely.许多人早已作出了这些转变,并叙述了其中的诸多变化。

这里有扔了工作的律师“迈向”这一行,沦为一名自动化合约审查的专业监督者;也有编辑“向下迈步”,研发了一套计算机化系统,用作打算和公布运动统计数据和盈利报告。如果将适应能力强劲的人与计算机配上,就可以避免单调乏味的工作,人性化地应付这种变化。Developers must “look for ways to help humans perform their most human and most valuable work better”, the authors say. Simply asserting this bright future will not make it occur, however. The temptation for bosses to opt for the most efficient robot solution is strong. Davenport and Kirby “expect corporations’ efforts to keep human workers employable will become part of their ‘social licence to operate’”. But is that wishful thinking and, even if not, will it happen soon enough?两位作者回应,开发者必需“设法协助人类更佳地展开最具备人性特点、最有价值的工作”。

然而,只是非常简单断言这种光明未来会让它变为现实。促成老板们自由选择最有效地的机器人解决方案的诱因不会十分反感。

达文波特和柯比“期望企业让人类工人可低收入的希望将沦为他们‘社会运营许可’的一部分”。但这是一厢情愿的点子,或者即便不是一厢情愿,它能及时构建吗?This is a fine call to action in the face of uncertainty. But let us program the automated story-writing tool for a sequel in 2026. Only then will we know whether humans who stepped up, in or forward, sustained a fulfilling working existence, or were merely treading water ahead of a tsunami.面临不确认的前景,这是一个很好的行动声援。但是让我们为2026年的前传设计自动化的故事创作工具吧。

只有到那时我们才不会告诉,那些向下、向内或者向前迈步的人们是保持了扩充的工作不存在,还是只是在海啸到来前蹚水。


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